Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.014995 0.016975 0.019136 0.021672 0.024571 0.027784 0.031621
2024-10-20 0.011614 0.014239 0.017355 0.021339 0.026316 0.032349 0.040253
2024-10-27 0.009545 0.012331 0.015828 0.020560 0.026835 0.034919 0.046200
2024-11-03 0.008662 0.011687 0.015664 0.021311 0.029186 0.039867 0.055606
2024-11-10 0.007928 0.011104 0.015448 0.021877 0.031245 0.044540 0.065091
2024-11-17 0.007321 0.010599 0.015244 0.022380 0.033196 0.049186 0.075004
2024-11-24 0.006604 0.009844 0.014581 0.022102 0.033910 0.052017 0.082423
2024-12-01 0.006019 0.009215 0.014025 0.021898 0.034669 0.054933 0.090235
2024-12-08 0.005524 0.008670 0.013533 0.021722 0.035419 0.057860 0.098336
2024-12-15 0.005246 0.008435 0.013496 0.022256 0.037357 0.062890 0.110556
2024-12-22 0.004850 0.007970 0.013038 0.022037 0.037977 0.065720 0.119169
2024-12-29 0.004672 0.007849 0.013133 0.022757 0.040284 0.071700 0.134209
2025-01-05 0.004233 0.007254 0.012387 0.021956 0.039828 0.072735 0.140178
2025-01-12 0.003915 0.006841 0.011923 0.021618 0.040190 0.075324 0.149518
2025-01-19 0.003561 0.006337 0.011252 0.020828 0.039607 0.076027 0.155096
2025-01-26 0.003465 0.006289 0.011399 0.021589 0.042095 0.082980 0.174525
2025-02-02 0.003350 0.006195 0.011448 0.022163 0.044261 0.089505 0.193866
2025-02-09 0.003234 0.006090 0.011467 0.022673 0.046342 0.096066 0.214127
2025-02-16 0.003033 0.005803 0.011112 0.022391 0.046728 0.099053 0.226584
2025-02-23 0.002857 0.005553 0.010808 0.022184 0.047251 0.102384 0.240263
2025-03-02 0.002699 0.005325 0.010530 0.022006 0.047814 0.105856 0.254724
2025-03-09 0.002625 0.005263 0.010585 0.022548 0.050042 0.113361 0.280219
2025-03-16 0.002482 0.005047 0.010304 0.022325 0.050493 0.116751 0.295634